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On 22 June 2026, Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister outside 10 Downing Street — becoming the sixth Prime Minister to step down in seven years. With Andy Burnham, former Mayor of Greater Manchester, expected to take the reins in July, the question on every business owner’s, investor’s, and taxpayer’s mind is the same: what does this mean for UK tax and finance?
Here is what we know, and what you should be planning for.
The Starmer Legacy: Where Tax Policy Stands Now
Before looking ahead, it is worth understanding the fiscal landscape that a new Prime Minister will inherit. Under Starmer’s government, the Treasury opted against raising headline rates of Income Tax, Corporation Tax, or VAT — honouring the 2024 Labour manifesto — but pursued revenue through less visible routes. These included:
- Employers’ National Insurance increases, raising the cost of employment for businesses
- Frozen income tax thresholds, pulling more earners into higher bands through fiscal drag
- Capital Gains Tax rate increases, affecting investors, landlords, and business owners
- An extended scope for Inheritance Tax, catching more estates in its net
- A 2p increase in income tax on savings
The cumulative effect has been a heavier tax burden on business, investment, and wealth — even without the headline rates moving. This is the baseline that Burnham will inherit.
What to Expect Under Andy Burnham
Burnham has not published a detailed tax manifesto, but his public statements and campaign positions signal a clear direction of travel.
Personal Taxes: Stability on the Big Three
Burnham has committed to honouring the 2024 Labour manifesto, meaning no increases to the headline rates of Income Tax, VAT, or employee National Insurance. For most working individuals, this offers short-term reassurance. However, threshold freezes are likely to continue, meaning stealth tax rises through fiscal drag remain a real concern.
Capital Gains Tax: Reform Is on the Table
This is perhaps the most significant area of uncertainty for investors and business owners. Burnham has indicated openness to revisiting Capital Gains Tax rates, potentially moving them closer to income tax rates — a reform that analysts project could raise over £11 billion annually. For those holding investment portfolios, buy-to-let properties, or business assets, this warrants close attention and possibly accelerated planning.
Inheritance Tax: Possible Overhaul
Burnham has suggested replacing Inheritance Tax with a social care levy on estates to fund a National Care Service. If enacted, this could fundamentally alter estate planning strategies. The exact thresholds, rates, and exemptions remain unknown — but if you have not reviewed your estate plan recently, now is the time.
Business Rates: Relief for the High Street
In a notable departure from recent policy, Burnham has proposed targeted business rates relief for independent shops, cafés, music venues, and pubs, with a 20% cut for certain categories and potential abolition of rates for qualifying small businesses. This would be offset by higher levies on large online retail warehouses. For high street business owners, this could represent meaningful savings.
Property and Land: A New Tax Emphasis
Burnham’s broader economic philosophy involves shifting the tax burden away from work and towards assets, land, and property wealth. Early signals suggest council tax bands may be updated to reflect modern property values, and a Land Value Tax is under discussion. Landlords and property investors should take note.
Fiscal Rules: Discipline Remains
Despite his left-leaning instincts, Burnham has publicly committed to the existing fiscal rules and responded to gilt market pressure by reining in earlier suggestions of looser borrowing. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has noted that the UK’s fiscal position leaves very limited room for significant new spending without corresponding tax rises or cuts elsewhere. Any incoming Chancellor will face the same constraints.
Stay Informed With Us
The UK’s political landscape is shifting rapidly, and who sits in Downing Street — and for how long — remains genuinely uncertain. With nominations not opening until July and a new leader not expected before Parliament returns in September, it would be premature to draw firm conclusions about the tax and fiscal direction ahead.
What is clear is that change is coming. The signals around Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, business rates, and property taxation are real — but the detail, the legislation, and the Budget that will make any of it binding have not yet arrived.
This is precisely the moment to stay close to people who are watching it carefully. We will be tracking every development — leadership announcements, fiscal statements, and Budget planning — and sharing clear, practical analysis as the picture becomes clearer.
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Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or tax advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making tax or financial decisions.