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On 20 July 2026, Andy Burnham was confirmed as the United Kingdom’s new Prime Minister, succeeding Keir Starmer and becoming the country’s seventh premier in a decade. For households and business owners alike, a change of leadership of this scale inevitably raises the same question: what does it mean for my money?
At Jermyn & Co, we don’t deal in speculation for its own sake, but we do believe our clients deserve a clear, level-headed guide to what’s being discussed in Westminster and why it matters. Much of what follows is still under debate rather than settled policy, so we’ve been careful to separate confirmed developments from informed speculation. Here’s where things currently stand.
A Reshuffled Treasury Sets the Tone
Mr Burnham moved quickly to reshape his top team. John Healey, previously Defence Secretary, has been appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer, replacing Rachel Reeves. Allies of the Prime Minister describe Mr Healey’s economic outlook as closely aligned with Burnham’s own priorities: regional investment, fiscal discipline, and long-term growth. Elsewhere in the reshuffle, Ed Miliband has moved from Energy to Foreign Secretary and Yvette Cooper has taken on the Health brief, while Shabana Mahmood, Pat McFadden and Lisa Nandy retain their existing departments.
For our clients, the appointment of a new Chancellor matters more than the political theatre around it. Fiscal policy, including any Budget, will now be shaped by Mr Healey rather than Ms Reeves, and early signals suggest continuity on fiscal rules paired with a more assertive approach to public investment.
Capital Gains Tax: The Most Likely Lever
Of all the tax changes under discussion, reform to capital gains tax (CGT) appears to be attracting the most serious attention. Independent tax policy analysis has identified CGT reform as potentially the largest revenue-raising option available to the government without breaking existing manifesto commitments, with estimates suggesting it could raise upwards of £6 billion.
Rather than a blanket rate rise, which modelling suggests could actually reduce revenue by discouraging asset sales, the more likely approach floated by allies of the Prime Minister is to align CGT rates more closely with income tax bands, broadly 20%, 40% and 45%, compared with today’s 18% and 24%. For context, on a £50,000 gain, an additional-rate taxpayer could see their liability rise by close to £10,000 under such a change. None of this has been confirmed, and critics, including former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, argue that pushing CGT rates too high could reduce, not increase, overall revenue by discouraging transactions.
Our take: if you are considering disposing of a significant asset, whether shares, a second property, or a business interest, this is a sensible moment to review your timing with your accountant, without rushing into decisions based on speculation alone.
Property Taxes: Stamp Duty, Council Tax and a Land Value Tax
Mr Burnham has long been a supporter of a land value tax (LVT), and there is renewed discussion of using such a tax, potentially around 0.48% of a property’s value annually, to replace both stamp duty and council tax entirely. Proponents argue this could make home-buying more accessible by removing the upfront cost of stamp duty. Critics point out it could raise ongoing costs for landlords, developers and overseas buyers, and may put upward pressure on rents.
This remains one of the more structurally ambitious ideas being discussed and would require significant legislative and administrative change, so it is unlikely to arrive quickly. Homeowners, landlords and property investors should nonetheless keep a watching brief, as any transition would have material implications for property planning.
Inheritance Tax: Reform, Not Necessarily Retention
Inheritance tax (IHT) is another area under active review. Reports suggest Mr Burnham could revisit the previous government’s restriction of IHT reliefs for farmers and, potentially, business property relief more broadly. More striking is the prospect, floated but unconfirmed, of abolishing inheritance tax altogether and replacing it with a social care levy applied to inherited assets, an approach that would represent a fundamental shift in how intergenerational wealth is taxed in the UK.
Families with agricultural or business assets, or those in the process of estate planning, should treat this as a strong signal to review their arrangements now rather than wait for legislation to catch up with speculation.
Income Tax and the “Tax Lock” Dilemma
Mr Burnham has publicly committed not to raise the headline rates of income tax, VAT, employee National Insurance or corporation tax during this Parliament, honouring the so-called “tax lock” from Labour’s 2024 manifesto. At the same time, he has previously suggested “there’s definitely a case” for reintroducing a 50p top rate of income tax for the highest earners, and supports raising the personal allowance threshold (currently £12,570) to ease pressure on lower earners.
Commentators, including the Institute for Government, have pointed out the tension here: the tax lock limits the government’s options precisely at a time when higher interest rates, softer growth and inflationary pressure are reportedly adding around £15 billion to the fiscal challenge. One workaround already in use by the previous government, extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds (so-called “fiscal drag”), requires no new legislation and could continue to quietly pull more taxpayers into higher bands. This mechanism has already raised close to £29 billion since it was introduced and could raise a further £5 billion or more if extended beyond 2031.
Our take: even without headline rate changes, fiscal drag alone means many clients could find themselves paying more tax simply through wage growth and frozen thresholds. This is worth factoring into personal tax planning regardless of what the new government eventually announces.
Cost-of-Living Measures and a 10-Year Plan
Alongside tax speculation, Mr Burnham has pledged more immediate cost-of-living support, describing a desire to give people “breathing space, now.” He has also announced plans for a longer-term “10-year plan for Britain,” to be set out later in 2026, with early commitments including additional council housebuilding, bringing essential services under stronger public control, support for British industry through public procurement, and a goal of ending rough sleeping.
For business owners, the mention of shifting business rates away from retail and hospitality and onto warehousing and out-of-town developments is particularly worth watching, as the current government has already begun a similar shift.
What This Means in Practice
For individuals, the clearest planning opportunities right now sit around capital gains timing, inheritance and estate planning, and understanding how fiscal drag affects take-home pay even without formal rate rises. For business owners, the areas to watch are business rates reform, any changes to reliefs affecting family businesses or agricultural assets, and the broader tone of fiscal policy under a new Chancellor.
It’s worth stressing that much of what’s covered above remains proposal, rumour or early signalling rather than confirmed government policy. Specific measures are expected to be set out in a future Budget once Mr Healey’s fiscal plans take shape, and we would caution against making significant financial decisions based on speculation alone.
How Jermyn & Co Can Help
Periods of political transition tend to generate headlines faster than they generate certainty. Our role is to help you separate the two, and to make sure your tax and financial planning stays sound whichever way policy ultimately moves. If you’d like to discuss how any of the above could affect your personal or business circumstances, we’d be glad to talk it through.
Get in touch with the Jermyn & Co team to review your tax position ahead of the next Budget.